Cocoa Prices Drop Over 10 Percent in 2026 Opening
The sharp start to the year comes on the heels of cocoa’s worst annual collapse on record in 2025, when prices tumbled 48.1%. Early drought fears in West Africa had briefly lifted values, but improved harvest prospects later dragged the market lower, leaving cocoa at $6,056 per ton by year’s end.
Global chocolate makers had already flagged weaker sales last year, while a White House plan to scrap cocoa tariffs intensified selling pressure. That momentum has spilled into January, with prices down 10.3% in the first two weeks. Favorable weather across Ivory Coast and Ghana is expected to lift harvests in February and March, raising optimism among farmers about crop quality.
Demand, however, remains muted. Ivorian farmers say recent unusual rainfall could drive a significant rise in output, while European processing data are projected to highlight sluggish consumption. Analysts caution that despite upward revisions to production forecasts, a return to past highs or a sustained rally appears unlikely in the near term.
Commodity analyst Oran van Dort of Rabobank told media that the Jan. 9 price slump was “driven more by technical factors than by changes in fundamentals,” noting exporters and speculators may have sold to capitalize on a brief Jan. 8 rally.
Van Dort added that “rising volatility in the cocoa market, partly caused by declining liquidity, has amplified price swings, while high margin requirements have also contributed to the steep selloff.”
He said cocoa prices are expected to “remain largely on a downward trend in the coming period due to surplus expectations, maintaining a long-term bearish outlook.” Still, he cautioned that “given the current volatility, both a continued decline and a potential short-term rebound remain possible.”
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