Dimerco sees Asia freight squeeze as ocean and air capacity tighten

Dimerco Express Group’s November 2026 Asia Pacific Freight Report says carriers are pulling capacity out of regional Asia services, driving intra-Asia ocean rates from China to record highs. Airfreight remains tight on AI hardware, e-commerce and holiday demand, especially on Taiwan-U.S. lanes.

Why it matters: - Capacity is tightening across key Asia trade lanes at the same time ocean and air demand are staying elevated. - Shippers face higher costs, less flexibility and more risk of missed sailings or delayed cargo through year-end. - The pressure is showing up both in intra-Asia ocean freight and in transpacific air cargo.

What happened: - Dimerco Express Group’s November 2026 Asia Pacific Freight Report says carriers are moving vessels from regional Asia services into long-haul trades. - The report says that shift pushed intra-Asia ocean rates out of China to record highs. - AI hardware demand and holiday retail demand are keeping airfreight space tight. - The report also cites global manufacturing momentum, including a rise in the Global Manufacturing PMI to 53.0 in September from 52.3 in August. - Taiwan’s manufacturing PMI reached 56.7, supported by export demand for freight capacity.

The details: - Regional ocean services from China face the sharpest squeeze because of vessel redeployments, scarce feeder ships and cancelled sailings. - North China routes to Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia remain tight. - South Korea also has limited ocean space to Southeast Asia. - Ted Chen, Director of Ocean Freight, Global Sales and Marketing at Dimerco Express Group, said short-sea lanes are now tighter than some long-haul routes. - The report estimates 63% of Far East-Europe capacity has returned via Suez. - Dimerco expects a full return through Suez by the first quarter of 2027. - Carriers raised Asia-North Europe rates by 6% week over week after a 12-week decline. - Thailand is dealing with ocean backlogs. - US-bound space from Vietnam is tight, with cancelled sailings raising the risk of cargo moving on a later vessel. - Singapore and India have softer ocean capacity and stable rates on major lanes. - Singapore still faces vessel delays of three to five days from congestion and port omissions. - China-U.S. airfreight rates are expected to ease from their recent peak as e-commerce platforms control volumes. - Relief is expected to be greater into New York and Chicago than into Los Angeles. - AI server racks, electronics and Christmas replenishment continue to support demand. - Winter flight schedules are reducing cargo space on passenger aircraft. - Kathy Liu, Dimerco’s VP of Global Sales and Marketing, said the U.S. airfreight rally has peaked but rates are likely to stay elevated. - Liu said Christmas stocking and fuel costs could lift quieter European lanes. - Taiwan-U.S. air capacity remains extremely tight because AI chip and server exports are overlapping with Black Friday and Christmas demand. - Vietnam’s U.S.-bound lanes and intra-Asia services from Kuala Lumpur and Penang are at backlog levels. - Asia-bound airfreight in North America faces backlogs at Los Angeles, Chicago and Toronto.

Between the lines: - The market is getting split between lanes with easing pressure and lanes where demand is still outrunning available capacity. - Returning Suez capacity could eventually cool some long-haul ocean pricing, but near-term regional Asia shortages may stay the bigger problem. - The mix of AI-related shipments and holiday replenishment is keeping air cargo tight even as some consumer demand patterns begin to normalize.

What’s next: - Dimerco recommends booking Taiwan-U.S. airfreight one to two weeks ahead. - Dimerco says constrained intra-Asia ocean shipments should be planned with the same lead time as long-haul cargo. - Shippers should confirm equipment availability and keep backup sailings in place. - For Thailand ocean exports, the report recommends booking two to three weeks ahead. - Shippers should allow extra transit time for weather disruptions and possible APEC-related cargo acceptance restrictions in Shenzhen during November. - As 2027 ocean contract talks approach, Dimerco advises weighing carrier rate increases against capacity returning through Suez.

The bottom line: - Asia freight is heading into a tighter, more uneven peak season, with regional ocean space hardest hit and airfreight still elevated on technology and holiday demand. - Download the full November 2026 Asia Pacific Freight Report